A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
